Analysis for EURUSD 24-28 May 2010

Previous Week 10 – 14 May

O: 1.2869 H: 1.3094 L: 1.2344 C: 1.2358

Last Week 17-21 May

O: 1.2359 H: 1.2672 L: 1.2143 C: 1.2570

Weekly

Weekly

Daily

Hourly

Fundamentals for the week:

• Europe and Canada is closed for Monday so the “true trend” will probably start on Wednesday, Asian session.
• We saw a four year low on the Euro this week and a battering of the equities.
• Friday seemed to be a recovery day for the Euro and the DOW but let’s see.
• On Sat, we had some news of the Bank of Spain taking control of a troubled regional savings bank for the second time (Cajasur, E596m).
• We also had Germany banning short sales.
• The U$1.1 trillion line didn’t prop up the Euro as would have expected but fundies are fundies.
• Think like a fundamentalist but trade like a chartist.

Expected for the week (techies)

• We hit a new 4 year low at 1.2142 and this is currently a strong support.
• Any lower and we will be heading towards the 1.2042, 1.1824, 1.1636 area.
• The general trend is still bearish but it seems like the trend is reversing and we may be more bullish next week if 1.2742 is the new support.
• Anything below 1.2742 and there might be some consolidation from 1.2742 to1.2498.
• Break 1.2498 = 1.2355, 1.2142, 1.2042, 1.1824, 1.1636.
• On the upside, 1.2779, 1.2898, 1.2986, 1.3285.
• Watch out for any news which may rattle this pair.

Fundamentals (based on +8GMT)

Mon:
EUR/CAD Holiday
USD Zone - USD news

Tue:

EUR Zone - GBP news

USD Zone - USD news

Wed:
JPY Zone – Bernanke speaks

EUR Zone – EUR/ GBP news

USD Zone – EUR/USD news

Thu:
USD Zone - USD news

Fri:
USD Zone - USD news

Week Holiday

Will be away for a week long holiday over the weekend so there will be no post for the week.

Back after 16 May 2009.

Analysis for EURUSD 3 – 7 May 2010

Previous Week 19 – 23 Apr

O: 1.3475 H: 1.3522 L: 1.3201 C: 1.3373

Last Week 26-30 Apr

O: 1.3362 H: 1.3415 L: 1.3113 C: 1.3312

Weekly

Daily

Hourly

Recap:

• Last week, I mentioned that if 1.32 is broken, we can expect to see a leg down to 1.3120, 1.3002. (0 = 1.2328). The low of the week was 1.3113.
• 1.3386 was broken on Monday but unsustainable.

Fundamentals for the week:

• We have Japan on a 2-day holiday so the Asian session is expected to be slow.
• There are very important news arising on Thu and Fri with Thu being the UK election day, so markets are expected to be rather volatile.
• Merkel has her elections on 9 May (Sunday) and Greece needs $ by 19 May so this might shake this pair considerably.
• Spain and Portugal is another story on top of Greece so any talks will send this pair in a swing.
• Politics as always, is a dirty game so stay safe.

Expected for the week (techies)

• We have a lower low on this pair and it failed to stay below 1.32 which is a key area for more bearish sentiments
• We closed at 1.3312 which is still not good enough for more buyers to come in.
• The key area for this week is 1.3430 = 1.35, 1.3593
• Below 1.32 again and we’ll probably see 1.3085.
• See charts.

Weekly numbers

1.3740 (38.2), 1.3593, 1.3430, 1.3200 (23.6), 1.3085, 1.2964

Fundamentals:

Mon – Jap & UK Hol/Euro/NY

Tue – Jap Hol/Euro/NY

Wed – Euro/NY

Thu –UK Election/Euro/NY

Fri –NY