Analysis for EURUSD 27 – 31 Jul

Previous Week (13 – 17 July)

O: 1.3972 H: 1.4165 L: 1.3897 C: 1.4106

Last Week (13 – 17 July)

O: 1.4135 H: 1.4291 L: 1.4118 C: 1.4214

Weekly

• This pair is still trading within a rectangle
• Week closed with a small upclose candle.

• As this pair have been trading within the same rectangle for the past 9 weeks, 1.4352 will be a rather sensitive area.
• if it fails to break through that area, it will create a triple top.
• Overall bullish but watch out for 1.4352 for Price Action.

Daily

Hourly

• On the hourly we have a bearish set up with a possible bear flag and closing wedge.

Expected for this week:

• This pair is in an uptrend however, a reversal is possible as

a) we may see a correction in the equities indexes

b) the euro rose last week on improved confidence

• We may probably see a low of the week at around 1.4123.
• Highs may probably be limited at 1.4290 but if it manages to breakthrough, look for 1.4352 and watch for a triple top.
• Trade based on price action as it is clearly still in a range and will expect the early week to be rather choppy.

Resistance: 1.42900, 1.4334, 1.4352, 1.4363, 1.4435

Support: 1.4089, 1.4123, 1.4162, 1.4186, 1.4206, 1.4225, 1.4250

Fundamentals for EURUSD 27 – 31 Jul

Mon – NY session

Tue – NY session

Wed – NY session

Thu – NY session

Fri – NY session

EURUSD Analysis for EURUSD 20 – 24 Jul

Previous Week (6 – 10 July)

O: 1.3959 H: 1.4072 L: 1.3832 C: 1.3948

Last Week (13 – 17 July)

O: 1.3972 H: 1.4165 L: 1.3897 C: 1.4106

Weekly
Daily

Hourly

• Trade base on price action for this week as it is clearly still in a range.
• We could probably expect a small downclose candle on the daily in the earlier part of the week followed by a large upclose on Wednesday with a range on Thursday and Friday.

Resistance: 1.4086, 1.4182, 1.4250, 1.4337

Support: 1.4041, 1.4007, 1.3971, 1.3887

Fundamentals for EURUSD 20 – 24 Jul

Mon – Japan closed

Tue – NY session Bernanke speaks

Wed – NY session Bernanke speaks

Fri – Euro session news

Short for the Asian Session

Entry: 1.3998
SL: 1.3996
TP: 1.3930 (may change)

Trade today/

Closed +40 long on EURUSD

EURUSD: Still Maintains Its Nearer Term Bearishness Below The 1.4200 Level.

EURUSD- With weakness triggered off the 1.4200 level, its July 01’09 high driving the pair further lower though closing marginally at 1.3936, EUR remains vulnerable while holding below the 1.4200 level.

This remains our nearer term view and that leaves further downside prices being targeted with the 1.3831 level, its July 08’09 low seen as the initial support. A close below there will highlight the 1.3738 level, its Mar 19’09 high where a cap is expected.

That level should hold and preserve its medium term uptrend started at the 1.2456 level. However, if that level snaps, lower level prices should shape towards its May 18’09 high at 1.3422. Its weekly RSI has turned lower supporting this view. On the other hand, in order for our downside view to be annulled, a return above the 1.4200 level must be seen followed with a recapture of its YTD high at 1.4339 Beyond there will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1.4719 level, its Dec 18’08 high. On the whole, while EUR maintains below the 1.4177/1.4200 area, it remains vulnerable to the downside in the nearer term

Directional Bias:
Nearer Term –Bearish
Short Term – Mixed
Medium Term –Bullish

Performance in %:
Past Week: -0.31%
Past Month: -0.83%
Past Quarter: +5.89%
Year To Date: -0.25

Weekly Range:
High -1.4072
Low -1.3833

Weekly Chart: EURUSD

Weekly Analysis GBPUSD: 13 - 17 July 2009

Previous Week (29 June -3 July)
O: 1.6512 H: 1.6742 L: 1.6277 C: 1.6306

Last Week (6 – 10 July)
O: 1.6305 H: 1.6379 L: 1.5982 C: 1.6206

Weekly Chart

• Closed as a hammer on the weekly chart and rejected 23.6 on the FIBO.
• Trading between 1.6732 and 1.5965

Daily Chart

• Using overtaking method, we will expect this pair to trade up on Monday’s open.
• However, expect some resistance at 1.6386, 1.6523.
• As we are expecting a stronger dollar, the bull on this pair is limited and 1.6588 may be the high of the week.

Hourly Chart

• Trading within a triangle during the last hours of the trading week with bottom rejection.
• Even though the trend was down, there is still momentum for an upside from a top to bottom approach.

Scenario for this pair: Expect an early bullish week to an upside of 1.6386 1.6523 and 1.6588. However as we are in favor of a stronger dollar, we may see a bear ride down to 1.6247, 1.6160, 1.6113, 1.6029.

Fundamentals:

Tuesday – Europe and NY session

Wednesday – Europe and NY session

Thursday – NY session

Friday – NY session

Weekly Analysis EURUSD: 13 - 17 July 2009

Previous Week (29 June -3 July)

O: 1.4069 H: 1.4200 L: 1.3926 C: 1.3972

Last Week (6 – 10 July)

O: 1.3959 H: 1.4072 L: 1.3832 C: 1.3948

What happened between 6 – 10 July

• The support levels were useful as this pair’s low was at 1.3832 (support levels at 1.3830 1.3879, 1.3930).
• Immediate resistance at 1.4063 was also a good indicator as the high for the week was 1.4072.
• The pair did open above the closing price on Monday but the high of the day was 1.3997 and not 1.4020.
• We expected a more bearish week but it closed with a doji instead (weak buy).
• 
  

Fundamentals for 6 – 10 July

• Tuesday - 5pm and 8.30pm
• Wednesday – NY trading session
• Thursday – NY trading session
• Friday – NY trading session

Weekly Chart

• This pair is still trading within a rectangle
• Week closed with a doji indicating a weak buy

Daily Chart

• Using overtaking method, we expect to see an upclose market on Monday and immediate resistance will be at 1.14120.
• Short term, there is some momentum for the market to trade up.
• Even though the signals are bullish, the strength is rather weak and we are short bias for the week.

Hourly Chart

• We can see a bear flag forming on the hourly chart.
• However, the QQE indicates that this pair is not oversold.
• As with the doji on the weekly and overtaking theory on the daily, this pair will go up first before the move down.

Price action for support are: 1.3980, 1.3898, 1.3847 and 1.3764

Price action for resistance are: 1.4025, 1.4061, 1.4412

Scenario for this pair: Let the market trade up to 1.4061. If it can break through, wait for 1.4120 before shorting this pair for first TP at 1.3980 followed by 1.3898.