Previous Week 17-21 May

O: 1.2359 H: 1.2672 L: 1.2143 C: 1.2570

Last Week 24-28 May

O: 1.2510 H: 1.2538 L: 1.2153 C: 1.2269

Expected for the week:

1.2143 seems to be a 4 year low for now.
We saw 1.2153 last week but it was unable to pierce even lower.
Nonetheless, we are still bearish for the coming week.
However, we do have Trichet and Bernanke speaking early Monday so it might be a choppy or slow Monday especially since London and the US are both on holiday.
Weekly, daily and hourly all show bearish sentiments but some hurdles need to be cleared first.
Look at the weekly numbers for more info on the weekly chart.
On the daily, we are in a bearish trend with 1.2480 as an important turnaround area.
Two possible scenarios:
1 – early bullish week with a turnaround to 1.2337, 1.2271, 1.2145 if 1.2480 cannot be broken
2 – Trades below 1.2271 when week is open and if we cannot break above, we may see lower than 1.2145. If 1.2143 cannot be broken, we may see consolidation
On the hourly, we are still in a bearish trend.
However, Monday fundamentals may give us some idea into what the Euro has in store for us.
I would prefer to take a trade from Wednesday onwards after a full market cycle has opened for the week.
Monday and Friday are important days for fundies.

Bullish: 1.2983, 1.2847 (23.6), 1.2724, 1.2588,1.2543, 1.2332

Bearish: 1.2137, 1.2033, 1.1975, 1.1905, 1.1830

Fundamentals (based on +8GMT)

Mon
GBP/USD Holiday
JPY Zone – Trichet/Bernanke speaks

Tue
EUR Zone - GBP news

USD Zone – USD/CAD news

Wed
USD Zone – EUR/USD news

Thu
EUR Zone - GBP/EUR news
USD Zone - USD news

Fri
Day 1 G20 meetings
USD Zone – USD/CAD news