Weekly Analysis EURUSD: 13 - 17 July 2009

Previous Week (29 June -3 July)

O: 1.4069 H: 1.4200 L: 1.3926 C: 1.3972

Last Week (6 – 10 July)

O: 1.3959 H: 1.4072 L: 1.3832 C: 1.3948

What happened between 6 – 10 July

• The support levels were useful as this pair’s low was at 1.3832 (support levels at 1.3830 1.3879, 1.3930).
• Immediate resistance at 1.4063 was also a good indicator as the high for the week was 1.4072.
• The pair did open above the closing price on Monday but the high of the day was 1.3997 and not 1.4020.
• We expected a more bearish week but it closed with a doji instead (weak buy).
• 
  

Fundamentals for 6 – 10 July

• Tuesday - 5pm and 8.30pm
• Wednesday – NY trading session
• Thursday – NY trading session
• Friday – NY trading session

Weekly Chart

• This pair is still trading within a rectangle
• Week closed with a doji indicating a weak buy

Daily Chart

• Using overtaking method, we expect to see an upclose market on Monday and immediate resistance will be at 1.14120.
• Short term, there is some momentum for the market to trade up.
• Even though the signals are bullish, the strength is rather weak and we are short bias for the week.

Hourly Chart

• We can see a bear flag forming on the hourly chart.
• However, the QQE indicates that this pair is not oversold.
• As with the doji on the weekly and overtaking theory on the daily, this pair will go up first before the move down.

Price action for support are: 1.3980, 1.3898, 1.3847 and 1.3764

Price action for resistance are: 1.4025, 1.4061, 1.4412

Scenario for this pair: Let the market trade up to 1.4061. If it can break through, wait for 1.4120 before shorting this pair for first TP at 1.3980 followed by 1.3898.